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Movies Streaming Now Enola Holmes. The Devil All the Time. I Am Woman. To be sure, my own view may be skewed from having lived in Japan for years.
But I have walked through entire villages that have been entirely deserted due to population declines. Against such structural headwinds, the unconventional monetary policies of recent years seem wholly inadequate.
From this perspective, endowment-style portfolios that are diversified across asset classes are more or less all the same flavour ice cream.
They require economic growth and benefit from low or falling economic and market volatility. Naturally, some strategies do exhibit low correlations to traditional asset classes.
The hedge fund universe comes to mind. But most hedge funds have either high correlations to equities long-short equities , tend to fail in crises merger arbitrage , provide little alpha over long time periods equity market neutral , or are not hedged at all distressed debt.
And almost all are expensive. The managed futures category is one notable exception. Managed futures have structurally low correlations to stocks and bonds, are supported by an abundance of academic research, and are available as low-cost mutual funds and exchange-traded funds ETFs.
However, low correlation to equities and doing well when economic and market volatility increases or stays elevated for years are not the same thing.
Eurekahedge, a hedge fund data provider, constructs indices for funds that focus on tail risk and long volatility strategies. Both strategies shared some performance trends over the last 15 years — which is to be expected given similarities in portfolio construction — but also some differences.
Tail risk and long volatility funds generated high returns during the COVID pandemic in and therefore delivered crisis alpha.
But long volatility strategies did better amid the global financial crisis GFC in and the high-volatility years that followed. Although the Long Volatility Index also lost money when volatility declined due to quantitative easing post, returns were far less negative than those of tail risk funds.
Since we are looking for a strategy that benefits from rising and structurally higher volatility rather than singular extreme market events, this analysis will focus on long volatility strategies.
For the last 30 years, bonds offered attractive diversification benefits when equities declined. But those days are over. Bonds have become much less useful in asset allocation since yields in most developed markets are low or negative.
The end of the fixed-income bull market also dampens the return outlook for such leveraged asset classes as private equity and real estate, which rode high amid declining interest rates.
But most critically, none of these asset classes can be expected to perform well in a reduced growth world.
As such, portfolios diversified across these public and private asset classes are short volatility and essentially fragile. So how do investors create anti-fragile portfolios geared for a world of reduced economic growth where fixed income no longer serves its traditional role in portfolio construction?
Long volatility strategies may be an option. Of course, their performance suffered amid periods of declining volatility.
And at times they have been painful to hold. Still, the same can be said for any other asset class. Equities certainly were no picnic during the bear market of to How would a traditional US equities and bonds portfolio have performed with an allocation to long volatility strategies?
We looked at the 16 years between and , a period that includes multi-year bull markets in equities and bonds as well as two severe stock market crashes.
Constructing portfolios that are less sensitive to the economic factor makes intuitive sense and the simulated results show the attractive diversification benefits for traditional equity-bond portfolios.
But hedge fund indices are prone to various biases that tend to overstate returns and understate risks. The Eurekahedge Long Volatility index currently only has 10 constituents, which is more than it has had in the past, which means investors need to be wary of the historical returns.
We can partially correct for this reporting bias by reducing the annual returns of long volatility strategies between and basis points bps per annum.
Although this reduces the performance of an anti-fragile portfolio, it does not change the significant reductions in maximum drawdowns during the GFC or the coronavirus crisis.
However, the favourable risk characteristics of the Eurekahedge Long Volatility Index could be due to a single manager and therefore more the product of luck than skill and not captured by most other managers.
We do not have the data to answer this, but it would be worth further evaluation. Unfortunately, other events could have similarly devastating effects.
Solar bursts could take out the energy grid and satellite communications. Massive volcano outbreaks in Mexico City or Naples could envelop North America or Europe in clouds of dust for months.
An earthquake could hit the Bay Area of California — the list goes on. Weak demographics may inhibit global economic growth and create social unrest.
What if underfunded pensions funds in the United States and Europe start declaring insolvency and cutting benefits?
And if that does not create meaningful issues for society, then there are always purely human-created disasters on the horizon.
The future of humanity is bright. But it will not be a smooth ride. Over the last three decades, thanks to economic and productivity growth across the globe, investing has been like driving the German Autobahn.
There have been a couple twists and turns, but it is largely been a quick, steady, and uneventful drive.
But that is changing. The journey over the next decade will have its share of bandits, potholes, and broken glass. So better invest in some insurance and a vehicle that can handle the bumpy road ahead.